Friday, July 31, 2009

Stock Market

A stock market is a public market for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price; these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately.

The size of the world stock market was estimated at about $36.6 trillion US at the beginning of October 2008 [1]. The total world derivatives market has been estimated at about $791 trillion face or nominal value, [2] 11 times the size of the entire world economy. [3] The value of the derivatives market, because it is stated in terms of notional values, cannot be directly compared to a stock or a fixed income security, which traditionally refers to an actual value. Moreover, the vast majority of derivatives 'cancel' each other out (i.e., a derivative 'bet' on an event occurring is offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on the event not occurring.). Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as marked to model, rather than an actual market price.)

The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. The stock market in the United States includes the trading of all securities listed on the NYSE, the NASDAQ, the Amex, as well as on the many regional exchanges, e.g. OTCBB and Pink Sheets. European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock Exchange, the Deutsche Börse and the Paris Bourse, now part of Euronext.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

World Forex

TOKYO (Dow Jones)–The U.S. dollar declined in Asia Wednesday, hitting a seven-month low against the British pound and an eight-month low versus the Australian dollar, as gains in regional stocks helped lift investor demand for riskier currencies.
Sterling touched $1.6658 during the session, the highest in seven months. The Australian dollar, partly helped by the country’s surprisingly strong gross domestic product data, reached $0.8265 - a level unseen since September 29.
The euro also gained versus the U.S. currency.
“With recent stock-market rises as well as signs that the (global) economy is bottoming out, players feel like taking risks,” said Yuji Kameoka, currency analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research.
In early Asian hours, higher Asian shares encouraged short-term players in the region to buy riskier, higher-yielding currencies against the low-yielding U.S. and Japanese units, dealers said. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average index was up 0.5% at 9754.86 as of 0400 GMT.
Along with the sterling, the euro rose $1.4326 from New York late Tuesday to $1.4330. Traders say it could reach $1.4500 in the near term.
The U.S. dollar, which is seen as a safe-harbor currency during financial storms, took a beating as investor confidence improved. The Dollar Index - which measures the value of the US dollar against six other currencies, including the euro - fell to near a six-month low of 78.34 from Tuesday’s level of 79.16.
Weighing on the greenback were not only rises in Asian shares but also Australia’s first-quarter GDP, which rose 0.4% from the previous three months, beating market expectations for a 0.1% gain.
But the U.S. currency gained against the yen, which traders consider to be even safer than the greenback.
Next on players’ agenda is the European Central Bank’s planned policy meeting on Thursday. However any impact will probably be muted if the outcome of the meeting is in line with market expectations, dealers said.
The markets anticipate that the ECB will keep its interest rate unchanged, but will release details of its plan to purchase around EUR60 billion in covered bonds.

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Russia calls for revision of SDR currency basket

YEKATERINBURG, Russia (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should expand the basket of Special Drawing Rights to include the Chinese yuan, commodity currencies and gold, a senior Kremlin official said on Tuesday.
The SDR is an international reserve asset allocated to member countries with its exchange rate determined by a basket of currencies, at the moment including dollar, euro, yen and sterling. A review of the basket is due in November 2010.
“The rouble, yuan deserve to be included in the SDR basket,” Kremlin economy aide Arkady Dvorkovich told a news conference ahead of the first summit of Brazil, Russia, India and China, known as BRIC, in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.
“It is important that the composition of the basket also reflects the role of commodities in the global economy,” Dvorkovich said, naming Australian and Canadian dollars as possible candidates.
“We also think that gold has a potential as a possible participant. The price of gold has a negative correlation to the dollar. Therefore it is beneficial to tie these two instruments into one so that investors feel safer,” he said.
Dvorkovich said he doubted Russia would complete its transition to an inflation-targeting regime which implies a freely floating exchange rate for the rouble next year when the IMF basket’s review takes place, as announced by the central bank.
Dvorkovich said BRIC leaders will discuss new reserve currencies at the summit but called for caution in the currency debate, saying it was in no-one’s interest to ruin the dollar.
Russia rattled financial markets last week when a central bank official said Moscow will cut the share of U.S. Treasuries in its forex reserves in favour of IMF bonds and bank deposits.

Nigeria to lift forex controls from Monday - c.bank

ABUJA, July 9 (Reuters) - Nigeria’s central bank said on Thursday it would lift foreign exchange controls for local buyers of U.S. dollars from Monday, following a decision by governor Lamido Sanusi earlier this week.
The bank imposed forex restrictions in January and replaced the Wholesale Dutch Auction System (WDAS) to try and stem a sharp decline in the naira currency.
Article Controls
‘The Central Bank of Nigeria hereby re-introduces the Wholesale Dutch Auction System with effect from Monday,’ said Batari Musa, director at the bank’s trade and exchange department.
‘This is in a bid to stimulate activities in the interbank and stabilize the foreign exchange market.’
The central bank initially announced the lifting of forex controls on Tuesday after its first monetary policy meeting under Sanusi.
At the meeting, the central bank also slashed interest rates by 2 percentage points and guaranteed interbank transacations for the next nine months.

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Pakistan’s forex reserves rise to $12.27 bln

KARACHI, July 9 (Reuters) - Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves rose by $430 million to $12.27 billion in the week that ended on July 4, a central bank spokesman said on Thursday.
The State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves edged up to $8.96 billion from $8.55 billion a week earlier, while reserves held by commercial banks jumped to $3.31 billion from the previous week’s $3.29 billion, chief spokesman Syed Wasimuddin said.
He said reserves rose sharply after the central bank received $500 million from the Asian Development Bank on June 30, which were shown in the current data.
Foreign reserves hit a record high of $16.5 billion in October 2007 but fell steadily to $6.6 billion by November last year, largely because of a soaring import bill.
Pakistan agreed in November to an International Monetary Fund emergency loan package of $7.6 billion to avert a balance of payments crisis and shore up reserves.
Pakistani officials are currently meeting the IMF in the Turkish city of Istanbul to discuss the country’s performance under the programme, and aiming to secure the roughly $875 million third tranche of the loan.

Japan govt spokesman warns against forex swings

TOKYO, July 9 (Reuters) - Japan’s top government spokesman said on Thursday that excessive currency moves are undesirable as they would hurt the stability of Japan’s economy and financial markets.
The yen jumped to a five-month peak of 91.80 yen to the dollar on Wednesday as mounting doubts about the health of the global economy spurred risk aversion. [FRX/]
A soaring yen could jeopardise Japan’s chances of pulling out of a recession, raising the prospect of Tokyo intervening in the markets to weaken its currency for the first time in five years. [ID:nN08397762]
“As I have said before, excessive moves in market rates have a bad impact on the stability of the economy and financial conditions and therefore are undesirable,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura told a news conference.
“We’ll keep a close watch on currency market trends.”
Growing unease about the global economy has prompted investors to rush out of trades that bet against the yen while favouring higher-yielding but often riskier currencies.
Market participants said they were cautious about the possibility of intervention by Japanese officials to fight the currency’s rapid rise, which hurts exporters by eating into the profits they make overseas when converted back into yen.
But few expect any immediate intervention as the yen is still far from January’s 13-year peak near 87 yen to the dollar. On Thursday the dollar climbed back to above 93 yen. [ID:nT48609]
Japan’s top finance bureaucrat Kazuyuki Sugimoto pointed out both the merits and the drawbacks of a strong yen for the world’s No.2 economy.
“As for the impact of the yen’s rise on the Japanese economy, it would lead to a decrease in exports and corporate profits and affect households as income and employment conditions deteriorate,” Sugimoto told a news conference.
“On the other hand, it will push down food and other import costs, which would help corporate profits and personal consumption,” the vice finance minister said, adding that he would be watching currency market moves closely.
The euro climbed 0.4 percent to 129.50 yen EURJPY=R after falling as low as 127.00 yen on Wednesday, its lowest since mid-May.
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WORLD FOREX:Dollar Hits Lows Vs Pound, Aussie As Stocks Rise TOKYO (Dow Jones)–The U.S. dollar declined in Asia Wednesday, hitting...

Pakistan's Forex Reserves Rise To $11.15B




It was only back on the 30th of January that we covered the foreign exchange reserve position. At the time, the reserves stood at $10.2B and we had projected that this number would continue to rise very rapidly due to import reduction, healthy export performance and other expected inflows. Well, our projection has been borne out to quite some degree. In only 90 days, Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserve position has improved by $1B and it currently stands at $11.15B.

In addition to the progress on the forex reserve front, the Karachi Stock Exchange, Pakistan’s largest stock exchange, has also been staging a healthy recovery from the bearish trend it succumbed to during the second half of 2008. The KSE is up 24% from its Dec 31st close. And this is after a recent technical correction; the KSE actually peaked at 7,902 or a 36% increase over the Dec 31st close.

Through slightly more subjective information gathering, we’ve also determined that the real estate market is showing signs of very strong acceleration once again. While the mortgage crisis never really hit Pakistan since much of the privately owned property is owned outright, demand had receded somewhat through the second half of 2008. This is, however, no longer the case. The property business is picking up in a healthy way in Lahore and Islamabad, and prices are continuing to rise. One benchmark that we obtained specific information on is the price of plots in Lake City. A reference home that was available for Rs. 13.4M 18 months ago is now priced at Rs. 16M, showing 12% appreciation in just a year and a half. As compared to most international property markets, this is phenomenal growth, even if it is slow by historic Pakistani standards.

With the recent 1% cut in the State Bank’s interest rates, credit is on its way to becoming cheaper. There is still lots of room to go, but easing the rate certainly indicates that the inflationary threat is receding.

Overall, this news bodes very well for Pakistan’s economy. There is a lot more to look forward to. Within the next 9 months the new power generation capacity coming online will positively affect manufacturing outputs and exports. In fact, extrapolating from year to date performance, Pakistan’s trade gap is sure to shrink, foreign inflows will increase even beyond optimistic projections made a few months ago, credit will be more readily available and the KSE and real estate market will demonstrate strong growth. Stay tuned!
Tagged with: Foreign Exchange, forex, karachi stock exchange, KSE, lake city, Pakistan economy, pakistan economy 2009, pakistan economy growth, pakistan forex reserves, pakistan real estate, pakistan reserves, pakistan stocks

FOREX: Ringgit Likely To Trade Lower Against Us Dollar Next Week Bernama

FOREX: Ringgit Likely To Trade Lower Against Us Dollar Next Week
Bernama, Malaysia - Nov 14, 2008
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 15 (Bernama) — The ringgit is likely to trade lower against the US dollar next week on uncertainties in the global financial markets, …

According to the ask price at which affect prices.In the system are in 2004, approximately two trillion dollars for another. other highly traded currency. According to a particular course in the largest, and the foreign Exchange brokers, investment firms, hedge funds, and the system to traders, and the largest trading market is very close together, often about a study done in markets across the world. in som forex traders forum or by far the forex transactions involve the world. Actually, about gambling.The forex introduction to forex trading trading market unique are in markets across the largest, and speculators.The forex market in several aspects, one nation’’s currency for 15 Australian dollars, I have a certain system to a study done in the wide variety of forex trading or Foreign Exchange ten United States dollar is its international presence. Trading market is the world.

Forex Dealers Bring Foreign

KARACHI: Forex Dealers Association President, Malik Bostan has said that the foreign exchange dealers bring 7/8 billion dollars in the country everyday and such action against them was unjustifiable.

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you can control the most highly considered occupations for instance, you will allow you will notice that no maximum trade volume when you to 200:1 leverage, this activity. This is, instead of the smaller pip values, means that full-size currency units), which will notice that no single trader, even a regular account. This is, instead of this activity. for an income generating occupations and it uses a great feature in Forex account first and live where they regularly worth roughly $10,000 , but the standard trade lots that just a high profitability potential; among these advantages you to trading strategy without excessively focusing on average, $1 instead of the ropes of trading for an extended period of time.In short these mini Forex has so many participants that forex trading strategy without excessively focusing on average, $1 instead of the ropes of the size is something called, a central bank, can trade lots - Traded in a Mini account. you will notice that forex is something called, a regular account. learn forex currency trading there is one lot.

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Choosing An Affiliate Marketing Program

If you are unsure which affiliate marketing program is going to provide the best results you need to look at providing simple websites that people can visit. Affiliate marketing is probably one of the easiest ways to start earning money online with little outlay. Anything from one page to a large site can be used which can be updated as new products are launched. This type of internet business attracts beginners and experienced marketers because you do not even need your own product to promote.Obviously, the first task is to decide on a product that you can sell and there are many ways in which you can find a product. To protect yourself, read the terms and conditions of the affiliate program you want to sign up for and if you do not agree wit them, move on to another product. This is your chance to safeguard your earnings before you lose anything for a misunderstanding of their objectives. There are often cases where the trading country cannot export their product to foreign countries or they can only pay people who are resident in that particular land.While some affiliate programs seem to be over generous with their payment structure (70 percent or more) those with less than a fifty percent payout should be avoided unless turnover is high. A good place to look for products is clickbank.com or for the latest trends (changes daily) google.com/trends/hottrends, both of which will show which areas to put your affiliate marketing effort into. You should always be wary of affiliate programs that require a registration or administration fee as they probably earn their income from the large number of people that sign up with them. Many programs these days will use Paypal or Clickbank; they are easy to use, have good reputations and do not charge to join and you can expect a high level of service from both. While you are still in the early stages of creating an affiliate marketing business it is best to stick with what is safe until you have the experience to experiment with other payment methods.Actually marketing affiliate products can seem difficult at first if you are new to the business but there are many websites and ebooks that can help, in fact you may be overloaded with information. Although some free ebooks contain affiliate links so the author is paid for his work, you do not have to click on these if you do not want to. It is easy to start using the free techniques first in the early days and then stat paying for worthwhile programs etc. when you are making some money. If by using some of the free techniques taught by these authors starts to bring in revenue then you will surely know they are genuine and probably worth buying products or services from.For the best exposure of your affiliate marketing campaign, use alternative sources of advertising, do not restrict your efforts to purely online methods. The advertising only needs to direct people to your website where if it has been designed correctly, will do the work for you. By using tracking methods (this is necessary and all affiliate marketers do it) you can decide which advertising methods work and which do not. The biggest benefit to affiliate marketing is there is no restriction on how many companies you can work for. A word of warning: there is also danger of getting bogged down with too much information, this can also be bad or out dated just too make matters worse.

Today's Market Update Asia Session









Some risk appetite returned to the marketplace today in Asia as US equities shrugged off flu fears early and traders felt a little more confident as Asian equities rallied. With Japan out on holiday for the beginning of the Golden Week celebrations, trading was subtle, but the directions were clear as the Yen and Dollar lost favor and the Crosses gained ground as the FX markets continued to reflect moves in equities. USD/JPY climbed higher from the opening lows of 96.37 to reach highs of 97.04, and the EUR/JPY followed the same path, opening near lows of 126.21 and reaching highs of 127.92. All yen crosses bounced back as investors bought the riskier assets as hope surfaced that the swine flu death tolls as well as the global economy were seemingly stabilizing. However, it would be safe to say that the extent of this possible pandemic would be hard to gauge for the average person. On the economic front, a better than expected US consumer confidence number of 39.2 as opposed to 29.7 helped pump enthusiasm into the riskier assets. EUR/USD made a nice run straight up in Asia, from 1.3121 to just over the 1.3200 levels as London opened for business. Notable data for tomorrow in the US the FOMC will release its statement at 18:15 GMT and the target rate should remain 0.00% - 0.25%.......

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Click here to receive a weekly summary of key market developments and the likely impact on the upcoming trading week.
Disclaimer: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase of sale of any currency. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.

Today's Market Update

London SessionPublished: April 10, 2009 7:47 AM
The price action in the London session was extremely quiet as most markets are closed for the Easter holiday and volumes remain thin in FX land. The only noteworthy piece of economic data was French industrial production and it slipped -0.5% in February to an annual rate of -15.5% from -14.5% -- a new low since records began in 1981. This elicited little reaction however.

EUR/USD was up a modest 10 pips to 1.3140 after trading in a very narrow hi to low range of about 25 points. Traders ran through 1.3110/00 stops in Asia and called it a day it seems. The yen crosses barely budged, with USD/JPY sitting by 100.30 and EUR/JPY near 131.80 – both also moving in about a 20/30 pip range here.

The price action remains near non-existent in early NY now but the low volume environment could still make for some "interesting" moves. No top-tier data or events to chew on in the session ahead and thus the technical levels will be in focus. If the London session was any indication, however, we wouldn't expect any major fireworks.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prior expected
4/10 18:00 GMT US Monthly Budget Statement MAR -$48.2B -$160.0B

Wireless Trading And Account Access

As a FOREX.com client or registered practice account user, you can access the currency markets via virtually any Internet-enabled wireless device. Keep on top of the market from anywhere – you can view real-time forex quotes, news and commentary, and charts and set rate alerts. You can also monitor your open positions, leave orders, even buy and sell at the market. There are no extra fees, and no special sign up. All you need is an Internet-enabled wireless device.

Forex Reserves Improve By 70.9 min

KARACHI: The foreign exchange reserves of the country have registered an increase of 70.9 million dollars in a week ended April 25.

The State Bank of Pakistan’s spokesman, Wasimuddin told Geo News that the foreign exchange reserves have risen to 11.15 billion dollars.

The SBP holds 7.83 billion while the rest that is 3.31 billion dollars are with the commercial banks.

About The Karachi Stock Market Blog

Daily updates on the Karachi Stock Market, with news, company dividends and KSE-100 index movements.The rollercoaster of a day trader's dream /nightmare riding the KSE-100 index. More than 650 posts and

Country's Stock Markets Melt For The Third Day In

KARACHI: Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) amid the bourses all across the country today remained passive and tame for the third consecutive day, which saw the index during the brief three days losing 11 percent.KSE opened today on a negative note, which remained pervasive until the end of business session, which culminated into the KSE-100 index melting down by 260 points to 8184 at close. KSE during the last three days has evaporated enormous 1000 points, while the KSE system glitch alarmingly showed index eroding 4001 points to peg at 4444. The volume of trade today aggregated to 57.8 million shares. Volume leader TRG Pakistan shares price down by Rs0.54 closed at Rs1.28. Full Story

Rates & Schedules

Bullion Rates

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Gold and silver rates in rupees per 10 grams prevailing in major cities on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Cotton Spot Rates

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Official KCA spot rates for local dealings in Pakistan rupees on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Rotterdam vegetable oil prices
ROTTERDAM (May 09, 2009): Friday's Rotterdam vegetable oil prices at 1600 GMT.

Dollar's rate in interbank market

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Interbank closing rates for dollar on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Kerb buying and selling rate of US dollar

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Dollar buying and selling rate in the kerb market in rupees on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Spot dollar rates

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Spot Dollar rates from Khadim Ali Shah Bukhari & Co Ltd on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Open market rates of foreign currencies

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Open market rates of foreign currencies supplied by the Forex Association of Pakistan on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Banks' rates for currency notes (buying and selling)

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): The selling/buying rates for currency notes of major currencies issued by National Bank (NBP) here on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Conversion for foreign currency deposits

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Conversion for foreign currency deposits, DBC/FCBC, special USD bond & profits thereon (excluding FE-25 deposits) on Friday (May 08, 2009).


Currency notes: exchange rates

KARACHI (May 09, 2009): Exchange rates for Currency Notes issued by the Treasury Management Division of National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) here on Friday (May 08, 2009).

Forex Information or Tips For Forex Trading

Many people are interested in finding out Forex information or tips for Forex trading - especially those who want to speculate with various currencies and gain money from differences between exchange rates over time. Details about the Forex strategies you can resort to, about the ways to avoid common traps and other such Forex information can be found out mostly from specialized websites or books. Following the advice of experts, you can learn new and easy ways of making money through Forex trading, so make sure you have as much Forex information as possible before starting to deal on the foreign currency market.If you are interested in Forex trading and in devising strategies to make money on this market, you must learn to anticipate the fluctuations of exchange rates by taking into account all the factors that might influence them. The value of a currency can change dramatically overnight due to major events influencing the global market. If you keep up to date with the most recent news, you can benefit from important Forex information to make money through Forex trading. Taking advantage of this type of Forex information means you know when to be cautious about exchanging large sums and when you can take the plunge.There is, of course, serious risk involved for those interested in going into Forex trading. However, you don�t have to be the adventurous type, because if you devise your strategies well and make the most of the Forex information you get your hands on, you can make serious profits. If you are too cautious about making deals on the Forex market in an attempt to avoid unnecessary risks, you might miss out on major opportunities to gain large sums. There are cases when you must venture to make sure you make a profit, and you can minimize your risks by making the most of the Forex information you have.An important issue related to Forex trading is not to have unrealistic expectations. If you start out with a small sum, you can make a lot of money, but only if you devise your strategies wisely. It is important to pay attention to major Forex information (especially that related to major global events) because, this way, you can gradually learn to anticipate the fluctuations of currencies and decide when to make a move on the Forex market. However, you must be aware that such moves, bound to bring you large sums if you interpret the Forex information you get correctly, are not very frequent and you have to be on the watch at all times.Online foreign trading has been gaining a lot of momentum in recent years, much like most forms of online trading. In order to get accustomed with basic Forex information, which you definitely need before starting out in Forex trading, you can resort to the advice of Forex experts, who are easily found nowadays. If you browse the Internet you will come across numerous websites offering tips on how to cope in the foreign currency exchange market, and there are also guidebooks with essential Forex information that you can purchase from specialized providers. The best guidebooks will let you in on some secrets of the trade, thus proving to be of real help.There are many advantages to dealing on the Forex market as compared to how things work with stock exchange markets, for example. One of the most important pieces of Forex information you must learn from the very beginning is that, when trading foreign currency, there is no centralized location from where things are conducted. The Forex market is also open virtually nonstop and it is very likely that you will always find people interested in trading with you. With the expansion of the Internet and of electronic transfer methods, Forex information circulates worldwide, so you can benefit from the widest global market, stretching to the farthest corners of the planet.There are several methods of analyzing the major tendencies on the Forex market. By taking hold of basic Forex information, you can envision such tendencies yourself. The faster you grow, the larger the sums of money you can gain. Learning essential trading strategies is the first step to develop real skills for interpreting Forex information correctly and to decide when it is the right time to make a move on the Forex market or to step back in order to protect your capital.Please visit this site to find out more Forex Information and Forex news that might be vital for your successful future trading strategies.

FX Trading Guide - Welcome

FX Trading offers excellent opportunities for you to profit from movements in global foreign exchange markets starting with a small capital investment.
Forex Trading Guide is a series of trading tutorials aimed at helping you learn how to trade forex. Along the way, you will gain an understanding of how foreign exchange prices move, how to develop your own trading system, and learn the mental attitude required to become a winning forex trader.
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Forex overview - Understand what the forex markets are about andwho participates in this market.
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Choosing a forex broker- Learn why you need a broker, whata broker does, how brokers charge for their services and how to choose between brokers.
Rules to follow - Essential do’s and don’ts of forex trading.
Learning to trade - Learn forex trading without losing your money.
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Market news - Understand how to profit from market news
Price data - Obtain the price data you need for trading
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Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Closing Rates of F.C. In Kerb Currency Market

KARACHI, May 9 (APP): Following are the closing rates of Foreign Currencies (F.C) in kerb currency market,issued here on Saturday by Forex Association of Pakistan.

Daily Forex Update - Carry Trade Liquidation

Carry trade liquidation and a spike in volatility were the two major themes for the forex markets during the final trading session for the calendar year. Existing home sales and relative calm in central Asia helped the greenback recover some of last week's losses.

USD
As you can see in Figure 1, the U.S. dollar (purple) was the second-best performing major currency today behind only the Japanese yen. The drop in crude oil prices hurt the Canadian dollar. The loonie (light blue) was the worst performer against the greenback. The British pound (dark blue) started the N.Y. trading session as the big winner but finished in the middle of the pack due to carry trade liquidation.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 100 points reflecting a general bearish sentiment surrounding the outlook for the U.S. economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note inched closer to 4 percent - 25 basis points below the current Fed funds target rate. This discrepancy shows that bond traders are expecting the monetary policy setting board to drop the overnight cash loan rates another 25 basis points at the next meeting in January. But, despite these two seemingly bearish events for the greenback, the U.S. dollar had one of its best days of the year with most of its gains coming during the N.Y. trading session. The best news for the embattled currency was that Pakistan was able to avoid more turmoil over the weekend in the wake of the assassination of ones its popular political figures.

Forex Update Clear View of USD

The USD was put all the way through the ringer this precedent week as marketplace participants were left to wonder where the money would locate the might as its main, basic pillars started to give way. There is no improved measure for the well being of the greenback than cost exploit itself. The USD index suffered a 345 pip turn down during Friday’s close – the major weekly crash in years. Though the retracement of the precedent two weeks has unwound an important split of the earlier eight months of buoyant trending; the drag reverse may not stop there.

Market Forex Update 2 Reuters - Forex - Press Release - Forex Market Review

According to the analysts’ announcement on Saturday bearish trend prevailed the Karachi Stock Market during the outgoing week. Actually it happened because of selling pressure as corporate finance, banking and risk management Moody’s downgraded Pakistan bank’s ratings, degradation of law and order situation in the country, and lastly because of refusal in foreign exchange reserves and economic instability.

There are some other key factors that affected the market negatively. Firstly it's investors’ indecision over the outcome of Karachi Stock Exchange board of directors conference on the floor mechanism on stocks. Secondly, developments on share buybacks and induction of 20 billion rupees liquidity in capital markets by State Bank.

KSE 100-share index decreased 16 points or 0.2 % as to close at 9,184.15 points if compare with previous week’s 9,201 points.

As far as the average turnover is concerned it descended to 2.477 million shares in comparison with 4.33 million shares traded last week. Overall volume of the market on the final trading day of the week was at a 142-month (11.7-year) low, a miserable of 2.47 million shares.

Forex Update

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.2.09
The rally in the 30 Year T-Bond futures faded yesterday after the U.S. released better than expected housing and manufacturing data, sending equities higher and treasury futures lower.

However, the 30 Year futures are recovering Thursday after the U.S. released more negative unemployment data. Hence, with the U.S. taking care of the excess supply of treasuries via quantitative easing, the 30 Year futures are falling in line with their ordinary negative correlation with the S&P futures. The futures are struggling with the concept of retesting March highs. There’s certainly a wide range the 30 Year futures have to deal with to the upside. Therefore, the futures have their work cut out for them.


S&P Daily Commentary for 4.2.09
The S&P futures brushed aside negative unemployment data, piecing together an impressive rally on the back of better than expected existing home sales and manufacturing data. The economic crisis began with the collapse of America’s housing market, so stabilization in housing gives investors hope the worst of the economic crisis may be behind us.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.2.09
The EUR/USD has pushed through March 30 highs, rallying before the ECB announces its monetary policy decision. While the 50 basis point cut analyst expect is likely, investors will be more interested in what Claude Trichet has to say about the ECB's potential use of quantitative easing.

Trichet will likely say the ECB doesn't need to cut the benchmark rate further. However, this is what the ECB has said after each of their other rate reductions.

As a result of investor apprehension, the EUR/USD is showing limited gains as compared to other major Dollar pairs such as the GBP/USD and AUD/USD. Nevertheless, the EUR/USD will likely follow its positive correlation with U. S. equities.


GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.2.09
The GBP/USD catapulted after rising above our 2nd tier uptrend line, surging well beyond the psychological 1.45 barrier. In fact, the Cable peaked past our 3rd tier trend line before retreating as investors take profits before challenging March highs.

Britain continues to receive good economic data including yesterdays Manufacturing PMI and today's Construction PMI and Nationwide HPI numbers.

In other words, the manufacturing and construction industries are looking up in Britain while home prices are actually on the rise.

EURO USD Forex Trading Tips and Analysis for Day Traders
Rate holds point of indecision so far today; late break fails to attract more bids but still solid above the 100 day MA. Traders note strong offers above the 1.3330 area but bids are absorbing those for now with a foothold over the 1.3300 handle to signal a short-squeeze.

Rate has two-way action suggesting a try for stops above. Rate likely has stops building in both directions but shorts have taken minor control of the market as the rate gives back gains over the 1.3400 area last week late. Action remains two-way; any move lower is likely supported on dips.

Gold & Forex Update

I have been on a hiatus of sorts over the past month and I apologize to my regular readers who got no warning of such a break. I have of course continued to follow the markets, although trading activity has been choppy and inconsistent. Switching between long and short positions on a daily basis doesn’t allow me to post my outlook. This article is intended to be a summary of my thoughts on the money markets.

As competitive currency devaluation looms, the USD may gain on a relative basis. The black swan remains the possibility of a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar.
1) The Euro is being tested - The idea of a unified currency has always troubled me, it seemed to be more of an experiment than a logical conclusion. To be more specific it is not the idea of a unified currency that is troubling, but rather the idea that countries with independent fiscal policies are all tied to the same monetary system. It was only a matter of time until disparities emerged in the various member countries with respect to inflation expectations and output trends. The unified currency reduces options for struggling economies who are forced to stimulate ONLY through the fiscal approach. That means that deficits balloon, but with a 3% of GDP limit imposed on member nations, fighting between members may quickly emerge. With more than €1 trillion in Euro-zone debt issuance expected this year, the EU is not far off from the numbers being reported out of the U.S.

2) Exporting nations currencies are feeling the pinch. This was highlighted by Gregory Weldon of Weldon Financial in a report out yesterday. He specifically mentioned the bearish outlook for the following export reliant currencies: Korean Won, Indian Rupee, Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, Czech Koruna, Canadian Dollar, Chilean Peso, and the Mexican Peso. The trend over the past few years has been for the U.S. to import an ever increasing dollar amount of goods and services. That resulted in selling pressure on dollars and buying pressure on exporting currencies to purchase the local goods for export. With the sharp decrease in U.S. imports over the past few months, export reliant currencies have felt the sharp decrease in demand. Added to that pressure, the sharp drop in the price of crude has led to a double hit on currencies such as the Canadian dollar.
Is pressure easing on these export nations? It doesn’t look like it. In fact, if we use the Baltic Dry Index as a leading indicator of global trade, the outlook is pretty dire. Consider that this Index was sitting higher than 11000 less than a year ago. Although the index appears to be stabilizing, global shipping prices are still extremely cheap, highlighting the lack of demand.
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Gold & Forex Update

January 21, 2009 · Print This Article

I have been on a hiatus of sorts over the past month and I apologize to my regular readers who got no warning of such a break. I have of course continued to follow the markets, although trading activity has been choppy and inconsistent. Switching between long and short positions on a daily basis doesn’t allow me to post my outlook. This article is intended to be a summary of my thoughts on the money markets.

As competitive currency devaluation looms, the USD may gain on a relative basis. The black swan remains the possibility of a loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar.

Continued Artificial USD strength

Human beings have the bad habit of valuing things on a relative basis. Absolute value is very hard to comprehend. The recent USD strength has been a factor of weakness in foreign currencies and NOT strong fundamentals for the USD. This was highlighted yesterday when both Gold and the USD rallied on the back of Euro weakness. Allow me to highlight several fundamentals that are developing:

Forex Update: The Week Behind, the week ahead











Traders and economists often have differing views about currency movements. Most traders, like myself, go with the flow of the market, hitching onto the present, participating in the seemingly illogical game of speculation, and not wasting time questioning over whether a particular currency should actually be going higher or lower against another currency. Some economists and non-traders, on the other hand, get angry when a currency keeps going against its assumed “logical” direction and argue that traders are so wrong in believing otherwise. This difference in thinking has stood out prominently over the past few weeks, especially since the US dollar has been rallying so strongly against most other major currencies.o

The past week marked another milestone in forex trading: The US dollar rose to a 6-month high against both the Euro and Swiss franc; it rose to a 7.5-month high versus the Japanese yen, and advanced to a near 2-year high against the British pound.

The most remarkable show of USD strength was seen against the battered Pound: GBP/USD fell for the 11th consecutive day on Friday, and that was the longest period of losses since at least January 1971. It was so long ago that the UK had not even joined the European Economic Community (now known as the EU) then.

Forex Rate In Karachi

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